Great Post Les and we are on the same page and Brian talked about what we are seeing at the moment and how he had to readjust his forecast somewhat with new information. I agree about the models and the hrrr is good for the short term because it updates every hour and like this morning the line of s...

Many of the models are having trouble with what is going on at the surface so must do some extra work lol.

Took the morning walk and a nice breeze so not bad. Watching the line of storms to the west an I was expecting it to weaken already but if anything it looks rather nice especially on the southern end which could be the input from the warm front. Interesting and will continue to watch that line this ...

That is rather concerning Les and with the storms to the west weakening this morning you are left with some nice boundaries and then with a warm front approaching this can lead to a nice setup for tornado's. Will no doubt be busy later today again we are looking at models and what they see happening...

Great Post Les!!! Will be watching this afternoon to see how unstable the atmosphere becomes and my guess some isolated showers in the afternoon but probably not until after 7 or 8pm to see some of the stronger storms. The one thing I know for sure is how damp it is and the almost constant headache ...

Just starting to look at the overall picture the next 3 days. I believe the one item that is sort of on the back burner in this set up is flooding. The flooding could be flash flooding which is the worse since you have very little time to see it coming. Not sure how much some of the areas in Adams c...

Good Morning Les and both days seem very likely for some severe weather. One key item from the boys and that is a sudden surge in the warm humid air and these almost always leads to thunderstorms and then we wait see and how strong they actually end up being. A nice foggy morning as expected in my h...

Parts of the central plains as expected getting hit with severe weather.

High risk issued for parts of Oklahoma today! Could Moore, OK get whacked for yet a third time??? Sure hope not. Prayers for sure go out to those folks! I read the discussion from the SPC and it makes you go :shocked: Hi Les, Moore is where our weather friend Jeremy Moses e.g. resides. He's a north...

The one thing I forgot to mentioned is the flood chances. Some areas over the past two days have seen some decent rain and if those same areas get hit again you may see some flood advisory's for streams and creeks. The flooding chances should continue through Thursday and though this is not one whe...

The one thing I forgot to mentioned is the flood chances. Some areas over the past two days have seen some decent rain and if those same areas get hit again you may see some flood advisory's for streams and creeks. The flooding chances should continue through Thursday and though this is not one wher...

Hey Eric and hope all is well with you and your family. Love those graphics you posted and much of that will be near the warm front. Tuesday the tornado chances will probably be further north and closer to I-70 but again everyone should stay alert. Wednesday that threat is probably near the Ohio Riv...

Another round of showers and thundershowers moving into the area at this time. These are not moving southwest to northeast but more south to north and even a little southeast to northwest and those can get strong. Expect lightning and thunder with some heavy downpours with the upcoming round.

Good Afternoon and no nothing forming at this point. We have a trough digging into the eastern USA late in the week and next week. This will promote some decent rainfall for Florida but south of there can we get an early tropical system to develop. Again its just when you see these troughs dig rathe...

Another 0.11 this morning. Watching the weak low pressure between Louisville and Owensboro this afternoon and it has weaken but still has its core around. Normally after 9am or so these do weaken to a certain extent. As it moves northeast will watch and see if there is a build up of rain once again ...

Watched Brian's video and 40 minutes long so tons of info during that 40 minute video. Tuesday afternoon the cape is quite high and will watch the models later today if they continue to show that. I agree with Brian we always need to see how each round plays out and how that will affect the next rou...

Mike I agree Tuesday needs close attention as well. Early May but the sun angle is high and strong so getting that atmosphere to become unstable is rather easy. Of course timing is key but with this set up even overnight storms can become strong. Not sure about Wednesday for location and yes the gre...

Just looking further southwest and Paducah got over 1.25 inches overnight but east of there much less. It seems the heaviest rain wants to be rather close to the river as these bands head northeast. There could be a wide range of totals today with folks further north getting the shaft while folks ei...

Round one moving through this morning though weakening as it heads northeast and Louisville got nearly 1/2 inch with this round but locally less with higher totals south and east. The second round is southwest of Louisville and heading this way for later this morning and afternoon.

Good Morning and some light rain falling this morning. Les you have been touting the severe weather for several days and a great call. The main item in your post is a low getting stronger as it pushes through the area. Both Tuesday and Wednesday have chances for severe weather with Wednesday imo hav...

Good Evening and a nice muggy day but not horrible. So what are we seeing for the upcoming week and models have moved a tad further south and east with the heaviest rains which puts us in a good place to get a nice amount over the next 4 days. Severe weather and yes heavy rains are possible but what...

Happy Birthday Les!!! I hope you had a wonderful day and again thanks for everything you do with the forum.

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks great. You mentioned in a post about a MCS. These of course can occur anytime but usually from late May through mid-August or so. Getting these you need a big high pressure and a rather strong one and we get the pieces of energy to head around the high pressur...

Finally looked at models this afternoon and not doing a great job as each run will have a different placement of rain over the next 5 days. No doubt they paint a busy period but with new info coming in the placement of the rains tend to be different each run. This tells me the atmosphere is loaded i...

Les I believe the remainder of the day will be mostly dry but watching some showers and thundershowers developing over Tn. The movement if north by northeast so it looks like later today much of the rains will be south and east. Not sure how quick the atmosphere recovers and its early May not June o...