CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow! Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier...

CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow! Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier...

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 8:42 am
Good morning Mike! Glad you're here. Always appreciate your posts and analysis especially during severe wx events.

Thanks, Les! Work and life have been keeping me quite busy but definitely try to post as often as I can!

Same here! I completely understand Bro.

CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

It looks like the first TOR watch of the event is going to be issued soon to our NW. This is for Eastern ILL and Northern and Western IN:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0676.html

pickles wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 1:38 pm Wow! Thanks for this, Les!

You're welcome! I wish I had more time to post. Gosh do I miss working from home!

The action has arrived here in Mason with that first round. Booming thunder, heavy rain and very dark skies atm.

No changes to the 12:30pm SPC Day 1 convective outlook. PWATS are currently at 1.7" right over us so heavy rainfall is likely with this first batch as it moves thru. Sub severe wind and hail is also possible but this is nothing to be honest as to what could happen later as we've been talking ab...

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRACKEN... CENTRAL CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON...CLERMONT AND NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT... At 101 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over New Richmond, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45...

Great posts Tim and Matt... thank you Sir for sharing that info from ILN. Very informative and it looks like they are on the same page as we are. 72 / 67 as of 12pm at CVG.

Hot off the presses from the boys: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning update trended the forecast towards HRRR/RAP blended into current forecast. This seemed on track for T/Td and accounted for line of storms crossing the CWA this morning, with a break behind it. While placement and occ...

12Z Operational NAM has rain today but I don't see anything intense until this evening and that's when it has those scattered supercells impacting the Tri-state, The 3KM NAM or the Hi-res NAM is much more like the HRRR that I talked about earlier which is I think the way to go. Here is the sounding...

Great Post Les and we are on the same page and Brian talked about what we are seeing at the moment and how he had to readjust his forecast somewhat with new information. I agree about the models and the hrrr is good for the short term because it updates every hour and like this morning the line of ...

Now that we have looked at some data, and this is what Tim was eluding too, is that can we believe it? What is actually happening in real time right now? Weak CAPE is already trying to build into the Tri-state despite the cloud cover. The airmass is very juicy and will continue to get juicer as time...

12Z Operational NAM has rain today but I don't see anything intense until this evening and that's when it has those scattered supercells impacting the Tri-state, The 3KM NAM or the Hi-res NAM is much more like the HRRR that I talked about earlier which is I think the way to go. Here is the sounding ...

Despite the date being wrong on this video, BG is LIVE right now. (As of this post)

I'll have more here shortly... on my lunch break now and outside of the "Iron Curtain" I will be able to make better posts for the next hour. NAM will be coming out here shortly too so let's see what it looks like for later today.

12Z HRRR is running and so far from what I have seen, that line to our West weakens significantly as it arrives very early on this afternoon. Then we get scattered supercells that are discrete forming around 4 or 5pm. Then by this evening we get that line coming in from Indiana late this evening. I ...

9Z SREF is out far enough now and for late this afternoon, it's got Cincinnati pegged at 75% for the significant TOR ingredients map! That drops to 60% by 8pm then 45% by late evening. Wow... I am concerned about that. Let's hope that is wrong. I'm logged on via the customer side here so I cannot po...

12Z ILN sounding is out now and you can go here to see it for yourself. Convective temp is 75 degrees today which of course isn't going to be a problem exceeding that temp. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/24050712_OBS/ No changes to the Day 1 Outlook from the SPC that was just issued. Below...

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 8:35 am Barely a drop of rain here - yes my wife planted her flowers so the dome is back!

Def need to watch mesoscale features for later today as it could get quite busy!

Good morning Mike! Glad you're here. Always appreciate your posts and analysis especially during severe wx events.

That is rather concerning Les and with the storms to the west weakening this morning you are left with some nice boundaries and then with a warm front approaching this can lead to a nice setup for tornado's. Will no doubt be busy later today again we are looking at models and what they see happenin...

Great Post Les!!! Will be watching this afternoon to see how unstable the atmosphere becomes and my guess some isolated showers in the afternoon but probably not until after 7 or 8pm to see some of the stronger storms. The one thing I know for sure is how damp it is and the almost constant headache...

6Z Hires NAM sounding near CVG valid around 8pm this evening. Pretty concerning... nam4km_2024050706_018_38.99--84.62.png 6Z HRRR also agrees! hrrr_2024050706_018_38.97--84.52.png These are model projected soundings don't forget. But man... this could be a very busy evening if this is even close to ...

A lot of clouds out there this morning / fog per the visible satellite picture. However, there will still be plenty of dynamics in play especially with the warm front later this afternoon and evening. All of the good shear, helicity, and CAPE are along and SW of the warm front in the warm sector whi...