Currently, there are 3 t-storm warnings for the IND forecast area and a couple of TOR warnings for IWX's forecast area (Northern IN). Our NW counties such as Connersville will be the locations that are going to be first at risk after 7pm. For the Metro Cincy area, I would say in that 8-11pm window t...

Mostly sunny skies and currently 77 / 70 here. The atmosphere continues to grow more and more unstable. The 3000 J/KG contour on the SPC mesopage for CAPE is almost up to my hood now. Bulk shear is between 60-70 knots now depending on your location. DCAPE is at 1000 N of Cincy, 1100 for the Metro an...

Unless something pops up ahead of time... based on the current radar picture, we maybe okay for another hour or so. After that... I'd really start paying attention. I'm going to take a dinner break right now. Please keep the posts going by all means and post something when and if you see it. I assum...

No change from the 15Z SREF as far as significant tornado ingredients go. 60-75% still showing up!

A couple of t-storm warnings are out in IN where those supercells are firing for hail, wind and radar indicated rotation. Nothing has been spotted yet tornado wise from law enforcement or storm chasers but the event is just getting underway.

Checking the SPC mesopage and our CAPE is up to 2500 J/KG. DCAPE is at 1000 with 1100 just to the SW. Lapse rates still aren't that great for us as they are more steep off to the West. We'll have to see if that is sort of a "saving grace" if you will. But I doubt it since everything else s...

Just getting caught up here folks. After I got home, I had to pick up the yard where a bunch of dead timber had fallen from the trees from the first wave of convection. Had to put out a couple more mole worms too. Hate those things! :lol: Anyway... no changes from the SPC's 3pm outlook. 76 with a de...

Very interesting with many moving parts and why things happen so quickly. We have a warm front south of us and cold front north of us moving south. Then once the cold front passes early Wednesday morning we have another warm front pushing in and a low with a cold front heading this way. Models are ...

Very interesting with many moving parts and why things happen so quickly. We have a warm front south of us and cold front north of us moving south. Then once the cold front passes early Wednesday morning we have another warm front pushing in and a low with a cold front heading this way. Models are ...

As of 2:06pm from the boys: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Still looking to see how the airmass will be modified behind this initial line of showers and thunderstorms. In the northern half of CWA, scattered showers have sprung up ahead of the line and seem to be removing any deeper convecti...

Alright... so skies are brightening up now in Mason and even seeing a touch of sun peaking thru the cloud deck too. I bet it will feel like a sauna when I leave the building at 3 for the drive home. :lol: I don't have too much else to report at the moment. It's pretty much a wait and see game now. W...

CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow! Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier...

CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow! Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier...

CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow! Les I feel shafted this time as I only got 0.52 and this brings my total since Saturday to 2.77 inches. So much tropical moisture involved and more like later June than early May. I know some folks are still getting missed with the heavier...

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 2:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 8:42 am
Good morning Mike! Glad you're here. Always appreciate your posts and analysis especially during severe wx events.

Thanks, Les! Work and life have been keeping me quite busy but definitely try to post as often as I can!

Same here! I completely understand Bro.

CVG picked up a quick 1.08" with that first wave. Wow!

It looks like the first TOR watch of the event is going to be issued soon to our NW. This is for Eastern ILL and Northern and Western IN:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0676.html

pickles wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2024 1:38 pm Wow! Thanks for this, Les!

You're welcome! I wish I had more time to post. Gosh do I miss working from home!

The action has arrived here in Mason with that first round. Booming thunder, heavy rain and very dark skies atm.

No changes to the 12:30pm SPC Day 1 convective outlook. PWATS are currently at 1.7" right over us so heavy rainfall is likely with this first batch as it moves thru. Sub severe wind and hail is also possible but this is nothing to be honest as to what could happen later as we've been talking ab...

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRACKEN... CENTRAL CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON...CLERMONT AND NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT... At 101 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over New Richmond, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45...

Great posts Tim and Matt... thank you Sir for sharing that info from ILN. Very informative and it looks like they are on the same page as we are. 72 / 67 as of 12pm at CVG.

Hot off the presses from the boys: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning update trended the forecast towards HRRR/RAP blended into current forecast. This seemed on track for T/Td and accounted for line of storms crossing the CWA this morning, with a break behind it. While placement and occ...

12Z Operational NAM has rain today but I don't see anything intense until this evening and that's when it has those scattered supercells impacting the Tri-state, The 3KM NAM or the Hi-res NAM is much more like the HRRR that I talked about earlier which is I think the way to go. Here is the sounding...

Great Post Les and we are on the same page and Brian talked about what we are seeing at the moment and how he had to readjust his forecast somewhat with new information. I agree about the models and the hrrr is good for the short term because it updates every hour and like this morning the line of ...