Guidance continues to have a tough time handling the situation today, but no surprise there. We are destabilizing nicely across the region ahead of a low over the St. Louis area. We need to watch that closely as it heads east.

Good morning Joe! The 12Z HRRR is coming in and thru tomorrow morning, it is flood watch cancel. It is not showing too much occurring at all tonight. Everything is scattered in nature even into the daytime hours tomorrow. I sure hope this is wrong. Yeah, it looks like it'll be moving mainly south o...

If we’ve had one of those complexes to hit our area (Kday/kcmh/cvg) in the last 5 years ( or more) I’d be shocked to know April 8, 2020 was a big one. MCSs here are pretty common actually. That one was a derecho. Lots of wind damage. I was hoping someone could look that up…You found ONE, I’m shocke...

Reports from April 2020 derecho.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:31 am If we’ve had one of those complexes to hit our area (Kday/kcmh/cvg) in the last 5 years ( or more) I’d be shocked to know

April 8, 2020 was a big one. MCSs here are pretty common actually. That one was a derecho. Lots of wind damage.

Watch those Indy storms. Our severe threat is increasing.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 9:03 am Funny, those few counties unshaded.

They are outside of SPC's severe risk today.

Radar precip estimates. You can see your dome, Les...

It's as dark as night here in Mason along with some heavy rain as well. Ugh.... I wish we were getting this at home. Man I looked at radar and shook my head. Dome intact. :( Dude it's been awful! Hope we can muster up something later or this weekend. I haven't mowed in 2 1/2 weeks. :lol: Saturday l...

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 8:55 am It's as dark as night here in Mason along with some heavy rain as well. Ugh.... I wish we were getting this at home.

Man I looked at radar and shook my head. Dome intact.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 8:32 am Central and eastern Hamilton county with a nice shower





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Little more than a "shower", my guy! Brief heavy downpours and some CG. Lovely timing for the commute LOL!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:42 pm SPC has updated their Day 1 Outlook and they have added us into the slight risk area now. Still not much CAPE and a lot of CINH, but DCAPE values look good as ILN noted in their AFD that I posted.

I saw. Just posted an update on my page. I’m maintaining 1/5 for now.

No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases, Biggest limiting factor at the moment. It’s a race between the MCS and the warm front to our west. CAMs show us getting to 1000+ in time but ...

Flood potential needs to be watched as well, especially tonight when the LLJ does its thing. Could see some training leading to impressive totals in localized areas. Another thing to watch.

No cape to speak of currently in our region. LLJ is only thing that has kept the MCS going to this point . LLJ this time of day is usually when it decreases, Biggest limiting factor at the moment. It’s a race between the MCS and the warm front to our west. CAMs show us getting to 1000+ in time but ...

The NAM has action later on tonight into tomorrow morning, then another round tomorrow afternoon with an actual surface low moving thru. The HRRR is more along the lines of Trev's above post showing our next chance tonight into early tomorrow. I also think we stand a shot this afternoon/evening. So...

The NAM has action later on tonight into tomorrow morning, then another round tomorrow afternoon with an actual surface low moving thru. The HRRR is more along the lines of Trev's above post showing our next chance tonight into early tomorrow. I also think we stand a shot this afternoon/evening. So...

I like a 1/5 risk for Cincy and 2/5 west for later today. Forecast confidence is on the lower side. If we can get higher CAPE values than modeled by the CAMs, we could even see 2/5 being needed here. I think later today and tonight will actually be when we see most of our thunderstorms and not as mu...

It doesn't look as if CVG is going to make it to 90 today. There is still time, but it's running out. Heckuva way to run a heat wave. Hey Doug and its always hard to hit 90 or above once we get that dew point over 72. Yes it has happened but never easy around here. The next 3 days if the dew point ...

Not expecting much sun today. I think we’ll stay in the 80s. Going with 88 at CVG.

15 day precip from 06z GFS. Gotta love it! LOL

00z Meteograms. Obviously those numbers need to be tinkered with but the moral of the story is the heat is coming.

00z GFS and Euro are TOASTY!

Agreed Les about the ridge retrograding. Should happen last portion of the month.

I’ve been advertising high heat on my page for a few days now and the GFS and Euro are really falling in line. With no substantial rain between now and then we may be torching pretty good!

Shutout here. Those southern plains thunderstorm complexes are just a different breed from anything we see in 90% of our thunderstorms. It’s amazing how they regenerate like clockwork from boundaries created the day before. They’re normal complexes would be considered a severe derecho in our hood T...